An Energy System Modeling Approach for Power Transformer Oil Temperature Prediction Based on CEEMD and Robust Deep Ensemble RVFL

Accurate prediction of transformer oil temperature is crucial for load optimization scheduling and timely early warning of thermal faults in power transformers. This paper proposes a transformer oil temperature prediction method based on Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD), Outlier-Robust Ensemble Deep Random Vector Functional Link Network (ORedRVFL), and error correction. CEEMD is used to decompose the oil temperature data into multiple subsequences, enhancing the regularity and predictability of the data. Regularization and norm improvements are introduced to edRVFL to obtain a more robust ORedRVFL model. The Tent initialization-based Differential Evolution algorithm (TDE) is employed to optimize the model parameters and predict each subsequence. Finally, error correction is applied to the prediction results. Taking the main transformer of a hydropower station in Yunnan, China as an example, the experimental results show that the proposed method improves the prediction accuracy by 5.05% and 4.13% in winter and summer oil temperature predictions, respectively. Moreover, the model’s degradation is significantly reduced when random noise is added, which verifies its robustness. This method provides an efficient and accurate solution for transformer oil temperature prediction.