Deterrence, dollars, or diplomacy? Why the United States sells arms to Taiwan

This article provides the first comprehensive analysis of the factors influencing U.S. arms transfers to Taiwan from 1950 to 2020. For decades, policy analysts and American government officials have argued that U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are carried out primarily to enable Taiwan to defend itself against China. Contrary to this assertion, this investigation demonstrates that U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan rarely have been aimed at enhancing Taiwan’s self-defense and deterrence capabilities. Instead, U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan occur for three alternative reasons. First, arms sales to Taiwan act as a signal to China, conveying the U.S.’ willingness to intervene militarily in the event of a major Chinese attack on Taiwan. Second, by supplying Taiwan with second-tier military equipment – but largely refraining from transferring cutting-edge weaponry – the U.S. strikes a balance between bolstering Taiwan’s internal stability and advancing American political and economic interests vis-à-vis China. Third, like U.S. arms sales to other countries, arms exports to Taiwan help sustain the financial stability of the American defense industrial base. Because U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are driven by symbolic and economic considerations rather than strategic military objectives, the case is an outlier with implications for theory on the global arms trade.