Past and Projected Climate Impacts on Human Development

Abstract Climate change is characterized by an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events and a rise in the mean temperature. These phenomena threaten economic systems and broader dimensions of human well-being, including health and education. So far, most empirical studies and future projections have focused on the economic impacts of climate change, recently adding climate extremes. Here, we quantify the subnational effects of climate change on the Human Development Index (HDI) and its components: life expectancy, expected years of schooling, and gross national income per capita. We examine immediate and lagged responses to meteorological variations, particularly rainfall and heat extremes. Finally, we apply the derived impact functions to project climate-driven damages on future HDI under different socio-economic, impact and climatic trajectories. We find diversified, significantly adverse effects of climate change on human development, with virtually every region facing developmental risks due to climate change