Mathematical Modelling of the Impact of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission Dynamics in Ghana

Abstract Over the years, Malaria has been a threat to human health, especially in children and pregnant women, particularly in the sub-Saharan Africa and some part of Asia. The plasmodium parasite is transmitted to humans through the bite of infected female anopheles’ mosquitoes. The availability of mosquitoes depends on several factors, including climatic changes and human interventions. In this paper, a deterministic SEIR-SEI model is developed to investigate the transmission dynamics of malaria under the influence of temperature and rainfall. The nextgeneration matrix approach was applied to calculate the basic reproduction number, and the equilibrium points were analysed. The local and global sensitivity analysis showed; the basic reproduction number is most sensitive to the mosquito biting rate (ϖ), human-mosquito contact rate (ς) and mosquito death rate (μv). The numerical simulations revealed that the spread of the disease is likely to maximize in months with average temperature of about 29.2°C.