A Physico-Statistical Model of Entrepreneurship: From Metastability to Public Policy in Emerging Economies

Abstract This paper introduces a physico-statistical model that explains entrepreneurial dynamics in emerging economies by drawing analogies from solid-state physics. The framework models the population in stable or subsistence jobs as a "valence band" and consolidated enterprises as a "conduction band," separated by a "social bandgap" of structural barriers. The model is operationalized and validated using data from Mexico, yielding two primary findings. First, a cross-sectional analysis of regional ecosystems reveals that competitive hubs (like Mexico City and Querétaro) exhibit a high positive Social Free Energy (G), indicating that enterprise consolidation is a non-spontaneous process requiring external stimuli ("energetic photons") to overcome systemic costs. Conversely, in structurally challenged regions, the real probability of entrepreneurship collapses due to high exclusion and low opportunity density. Second, a 20-year longitudinal analysis (2000–2020) reveals a critical decoupling: while the national stock of professionals ("social electrons") grew by 83%, economic conductivity increased by only 36%. This evidence supports the existence of a "critical entropy" threshold, beyond which the system becomes saturated and inefficient at converting talent into value. The model thus provides a quantitative tool for diagnosing entrepreneurial ecosystems and designing differentiated public policies tailored to their specific systemic conditions.