July 25, 2025

In the Shadow of War: Assessing Conflict-Driven Disruptions in the Kyrgyzstan-Russia Labor Pipeline via a Gradient Boosting Approach to Nowcasting

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Migration patterns in Kyrgyzstan significantly changed due to the onset of war in February 2022.
Remittances from Russia constituted about 30% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP prior to the conflict.
The study utilized machine learning techniques like XGBoost to estimate missing migration data.
Findings reveal that Central Asian migrants may fill labor gaps left by conscripted Russian workers.

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Analysis shows conflict disrupts migration flows in Kyrgyzstan, indicating changes in labor supply and remittances.

Michelle Schultze (2025) studied this question.

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