Analyzing the Impact of Vandalism, Hoarding, and Strikes on Fuel Distribution in Nigeria

Fuel scarcity remains a persistent issue in Nigeria, disrupting daily activities and economic stability. This study proposes a mathematical model to investigate the downstream petroleum sector, focusing on the distribution of petroleum products for domestic consumption. The model captures critical factors such as vandalism, industrial actions, diversion, and hoarding, which contribute to fuel scarcity. The feasibility, positivity of solutions, and existence and uniqueness of the model were established to validate its applicability to real - world scenarios.Five equilibrium points were identified, representing various states of fuel distribution. A critical supply threshold of 42 million liters per day was derived for PMS, which means the minimum volume needed to meet consumer demand and eliminate fuel queues. Stability analyses using Lyapunov functions and Routh - Hurwitz criteria demonstrated that effective distribution can be sustained under favorable government policies. Numerical simulations revealed that the hoarding of PMS by private retail marketers significantly worsens the scarcity, while industrial actions would have a more severe impact than pipeline vandalism.The study underscores the importance of alternative transportation methods, such as rail, to mitigate challenges in the downstream sector, including poor road infrastructure and pipeline vandalism. Recommendations include the government to intensify efforts to foster a conducive environment for stakeholders, improve monitoring mechanisms for private marketers, and optimize fuel transportation systems.Although the model generalizes refinery sources and assumes rail as a transportation alternative, it provides a robust framework for understanding fuel distribution dynamics. The framework is adaptable to other oil-producing and non-oil-producing countries, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in energy distribution systems.