Thermal Refuge Modeling: A Short Review

Thermal refuges in river systems play a vital role in safeguarding aquatic organisms, particularly cold-water poikilotherms, during extreme temperature events. These refuges are characterized by localized temperature anomalies under the influence of different natural meteorological, hydrological and geomorphological factors or human activities. The identification, prediction and protection of thermal refuges have gained importance due to the rising impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on river temperatures. Models have become increasingly used for addressing related concerns and applied questions in river science. This review examines various modeling approaches of thermal refuges, focusing on deterministic and statistical/stochastic models applicable in river environments. Deterministic models provide a process-based understanding of thermal dynamics, while statistical/stochastic models offer insights into spatial and temporal patterns by correlating thermal refuges/plumes to different controlling parameters. By analyzing the strengths and limitations of these methodologies, this review highlights their complementary roles in advancing thermal refuge research and management. Emerging opportunities, such as integrating thermal infrared imagery and machine-learning algorithms, underscore the potential for enhancing predictive capabilities in this critical field.