Broadly quantifying the roads ahead: SSPs for 188 countries to 2150

Abstract This manuscript extends the operationalization of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) narratives by projecting 203 socioeconomic indicators for 188 countries to 2150 using the International Futures (IFs) model. The indicators span demographics, conflict, economics, education, health, infrastructure, and governance from a fully integrated model. They address existing limitations related to a) inconsistency between quantification and scenario narratives; b) inconsistencies driven by use of unconnected models; c) the omission of indicators; and d) lack of projections into the 22nd century. While these new projections are highly correlated with existing forecasts, they show lower economic growth driven by a broader set of variables including conflict, governance, infrastructure, and human development, which leads to lower resource demand. We also introduce new government spending measures by sector that can be used to connect the SSPs to a broader theoretical understandings of future patterns of mitigation and adaptation in the face of climate change.