Emerging Hotspots of Agricultural Drought under Climate Change

Abstract Heightened agricultural drought risk is a potentially severe consequence of climate change, yet projections remain uncertain, reflecting both inconsistent precipitation projections and limited understanding of how land–atmosphere interactions shape spatial variations in soil moisture change. Here, we present a novel framework that links climate-driven changes in the land-surface water balance to growing-season soil moisture. A key innovation is the focus on local growing seasons, incorporating both growing-season fluxes and antecedent soil moisture, thus capturing both seasonal hydroclimate drivers and soil moisture memory. By identifying where warming-driven increases in evaporation dominate seasonal water balance trends, the framework enables robust regional projections of drought, notwithstanding precipitation uncertainty. We identify northern and western Europe, southern Africa, and much of northern South America and western North America as emerging agricultural drought hotspots. Across the northern extra-tropics, the ERA5 reanalysis shows a 141% increase in agricultural drought occurrence from 1980–2000 to 2000–2020, consistent with a 36% rise in CMIP6 historical simulations. Projections under SSP5-8.5 indicate a 107% increase by 2070–2090. These results have implications for food security, highlighting the need for drought-resilient adaptation not only in the Global South, but also in extratropical regions where drought risk is already worsening.