ABSTRACT Droughts, wielding devastating impacts on India, serve as the focal point of this research paper that explores key facets of India and its six distinct homogeneous regions' future climate by investigating the frequency, intensity, and underlying mechanisms of droughts. Utilising 10 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), spanning 1901 to 2014, our study employs a Multi‐Model Ensemble (MME) approach under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios for the near (2031–2060) and far (2071–2100) future. Examining historical and projected scenarios, our findings reveal shifting patterns in drought frequency and intensity across regions, identifying North‐west India (NWI) and North‐central India (NCI) as potential hotspots. The study delves into atmospheric dynamics, revealing their role in drought vulnerabilities. Future trends under SSP245 and SSP585 trajectories underscore the impact of anthropogenic activities, with SSP585 projecting heightened drought risks, especially in NWI and NCI. The analysis of atmospheric physics uncovers the influence of moisture, convective processes, and regional climatic factors, attributing intensified drought risks to amplified atmospheric instability, particularly in NWI. Near‐future precipitation patterns reflect regional nuances driven by atmospheric physics and climatic factors. Transitioning to the far future reveals persistent precipitation patterns, emphasising the role of emission trajectories in shaping drought conditions. Statistical analyses indicate an increase in drought intensity and duration, with NWI witnessing the maximum number of extreme droughts. Divergent regional patterns necessitate planned, adaptive policies to address evolving climate dynamics.
Bhatla et al. (Wed,) studied this question.