The mobilization of young voters: Evidence from a field experiment

Can traditional campaign tools still mobilize young voters in the digital age? Despite the widespread use of direct mail in election campaigns, we lack causal evidence on whether party-sent letters influence first-time voters — an electorally crucial group whose initial vote choices can shape long-term political behavior. We address this question through a large-scale field experiment conducted in collaboration with a major German parliamentary party during the 2024 European Parliament election. Randomizing the distribution of 37,000 letters across zip-code areas in Berlin, we estimate the causal effects of partisan direct mail on turnout and vote choice. We find that the campaign had no detectable effect on electoral participation or vote share for the sending party, a result confirmed by individual-level data from a post-election survey. These null findings challenge the effectiveness of conventional mobilization tactics among digitally native cohorts and underscore the need to reassess established strategies for engaging first-time voters in contemporary democracies.