Assessing Land Use and Vegetation Change in Kiborgoch Wetland Conservancy, Kenya: Evidence from 30 Years of Remote Sensing (1994–2024)

Wetlands are critical socio-ecological systems that support biodiversity, regulate hydrological cycles, and sustain livelihoods across East Africa. Despite their importance, these ecosystems are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic pressures and climate variability. This study assessed land use and vegetation changes in the Kiborgoch Wildlife and Wetland Conservancy, located in Kenya’s Rift Valley, over 30 years (1994–2024). Using Landsat satellite imagery, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series, and GIS analysis, land cover was classified into four primary categories: bareland, wetland vegetation, swamp vegetation, and grassland vegetation. The results revealed substantial landscape transformations, including a 51% increase in bareland, a 52% increase in swamp vegetation, and a 36% decline in grassland vegetation. Wetland vegetation exhibited non-linear trends, peaking in 2014 before declining by 2024. NDVI analysis indicated spatially variable trends in vegetation health, with pronounced degradation near settlements and agricultural zones. These changes were largely driven by land encroachment, upstream water abstraction, and the harvesting of vegetation. The findings highlight the urgent need for targeted conservation strategies, enhanced spatial monitoring, and strengthened community-based management to safeguard the ecological integrity of conservancy-managed wetlands in Kenya