The Bayesian sinking in Porticello: a predictable convective windstorm?

The Bayesian yacht sank in Porticello, Sicily, at 0206 UTC on 19 August 2024 during a thunderstorm. Of the 22 people on board, 7 lost their lives. An in-depth analysis of available observations highlighted that the ship was likely struck by a quasi-linear convective system. Satellite images showed a Mesoscale Convective System over the Tyrrhenian Sea between 2300 UTC on 18 August 2024 and 0300 UTC on 19 August 2024, with convective cells that lasted less than 1h. The storm motion of the cell that hit Porticello was not consistent with that expected for a right mover supercell, suggesting that supercells were not present during the event. A few videos taken along the coast captured very intense northwesterly wind gusts, with no evidence of rotating winds or waterspouts. Before sinking, the yacht drifted southeastward, pushed by the northwesterly wind. Data from weather stations revealed classic downburst features, such as an increase in pressure and a drop in potential temperature corresponding to the strongest gusts. No signs of mesocyclones (e.g. sudden pressure drop) were detected.The predictability of the event was also investigated. Operational simulations performed one day ahead with the ICON-2I model, running at 2.2 km horizontal resolution over a domain centred on Italy, pointed out that a convective wind gust hazard could have been expected over the southern Tyrrhenian Sea that night. Furthermore, the satellite analysis showed that the storm developed 3h before the accident and kept a coherent trajectory during its lifetime, suggesting that there may have been enough time to warn people. Lastly, we remark that radar data were unavailable in the area affected by the storm, which is a significant limitation for nowcasting, early warning systems, post-event analysis and research.