Evaluating the Climate Resilience of Agricultural Livelihoods Through the Impact of Climate Change on Sediment Loss and Retention—A Step Towards Ecosystem-Based Adaptation in Savannakhet Province, Lao People’s Democratic Republic

This study assesses the projected impacts of climate change on sediment retention and soil loss in Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR, through the application of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) model. Using climate projections under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the mid- and late-21st century (2050 and 2080), compared against a 2015 baseline, the analysis quantifies changes in sediment dynamics and ecosystem service provision. Results reveal a substantial increase in sediment retention, particularly in forested and flooded vegetation areas, under moderate and high-emission pathways. However, an overall rise in soil loss is observed across croplands and urbanized zones, driven by intensified high-risk areas, which requires conservative management. This study advocates for ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) strategies—including afforestation, intercropping, and riparian restoration—to enhance watershed resilience. These nature-based solutions align with national adaptation goals and offer co-benefits for biodiversity, climate regulation, and rural livelihoods.