[Carbon Lock-in Status and Unlocking Pathways of Urban Construction Industry at the City Scale in China].

China is at a crucial turning point in advancing green and low-carbon development. The construction industry, being a major contributor to energy consumption and carbon emissions, presents a significant challenge in the form of carbon lock-in. This issue requires thorough investigation to identify effective strategies for overcoming it. This study leverages panel data from 272 Chinese cities, covering the period from 2011 to 2020, to explore the phenomenon of carbon lock-in within urban construction. By examining various dimensions-technological, economic, institutional, and social-the research identifies the primary drivers of carbon emissions and suggests pathways to mitigate carbon lock-in in cities that have not yet achieved substantial reductions. The study's findings are as follows： ① Carbon emissions from urban construction in China surged from 17,030 million tons to 69,603 million tons over the study period, reflecting a fourfold increase. This trend was characterized by a "east high, west low" distribution pattern, indicating a significant regional disparity. ② The phenomenon of carbon lock-in across cities showed initial fluctuations but generally increased over time. Its spatial distribution shifted from being concentrated in northern and central regions to becoming more dispersed across the entire country. ③ Technological, institutional, and economic factors were identified as the primary drivers of carbon emissions in the urban construction sector in China, all exhibiting a positive impact. Based on the key driver indicators, a detailed analysis of "technological," "institutional," and "economic" carbon unlocking pathways was conducted for 209 Chinese cities requiring intervention between 2011 and 2020. The aim is to assist local governments in crafting tailored low-carbon development strategies that reflect the unique carbon lock-in levels and driving forces of each city. This approach supports the exploration of sustainable development pathways and helps in achieving dual carbon goals by addressing the specific challenges and opportunities present in different regions.