Strategic Guidelines for the Development of Agribusiness in the Context of Institutional Change

The article presents an approach to the formation of strategic development guidelines for agribusiness in Ukraine under the conditions of institutional transformation caused by war, decentralization, and regulatory reforms. The relevance of the research stems from the need for post-war recovery of the agricultural sector and the enhancement of its resilience to internal and external challenges. The study proposes a strategic planning model based on the forecasting of institutional changes, which integrates regional characteristics, the potential for cooperation with territorial communities, and the scope of state support mechanisms. The methodology is grounded in simplex modeling and the use of integrated performance indicators, including the internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), and a partnership interaction index. The model was applied to evaluate four development scenarios for the period 2024–2028: “institutional breakthrough,” “gradual development,” “regional imbalance,” and “institutional instability.” The empirical section includes a comparative analysis of an agribusiness platform in Vinnytsia region (Ukraine) and agricultural cooperatives in Lublin Voivodeship (Poland), highlighting the importance of institutional stability and cooperation with local authorities. The study identifies six priority directions for enhancing strategic management in Ukraine’s agrarian sector: institutional adaptation of strategies, deeper collaboration with local communities, regional diversification of planning tools, integration of innovation and digitalization, targeted public support, and decentralized financial mechanisms. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates the relative vulnerability of each scenario to fluctuations in institutional conditions and investment risks. The results may be applied in national agricultural policy design, the formation of corporate strategies by agroholdings, and the development of regional support programs.