Export Potential of Ukraine's Agri-Food Sector: Resilience to Economic Shocks

The article examines the export potential of Ukraine’s agricultural sector in the context of severe economic shocks caused by the full-scale war. The purpose of the study is to assess the current state of agro-export, analyze the resilience of the sector to external challenges, and identify effective approaches to strengthening its stability under crisis conditions. The relevance of the topic is determined by the strategic importance of agriculture for Ukraine’s economy, food security, and its substantial contribution to global agri-food markets. The high share of agricultural products in the country’s export structure underscores the urgency of developing adaptive mechanisms for external trade in times of geopolitical and economic turbulence. The research methodology is based on systemic, comparative, and statistical analysis, combined with abstract-logical methods and expert evaluation. A comprehensive approach allowed the authors to study export dynamics, identify key product groups, and outline the structural shifts that occurred in 2022–2024. The analysis revealed that grain, oilseeds, poultry meat, and processed agricultural products remain the core of Ukrainian agro-export. Despite positive tendencies in some segments, overall export operations face critical risks related to disrupted logistics, market volatility, infrastructural damage, and trade restrictions. The study emphasizes the need for implementing risk management systems at the enterprise level as a tool for increasing flexibility, reducing losses, and ensuring continuity of export activities. Special attention is given to the strategic importance of diversification, logistics modernization, and scenario planning for the development of adaptive business models. The practical value of the article lies in the proposed directions for improving the sustainability of agricultural exports and enhancing the competitiveness of agri-food enterprises in the face of long-term instability. The conclusions of the research can be applied in strategic decision-making, policy formation, and enterprise-level planning to support Ukraine’s agro-export capacity in the post-crisis recovery phase.