Who Influences Whom? Elite and Citizen Preferences Regarding Marijuana and Drug Legalisation in Latin America

In Latin America, public opinion support for drug legalisation is generally low. Yet since the 2010s, drug policy debates have grown, and some politicians became reform advocates. This may suggest a disconnect between elites and citizens. We tentatively explore the relationship between elites’ and citizens’ opinions using PELA and Latinobarómetro surveys. The findings suggest a more reciprocal relationship than we originally assumed, as the percentage of population agreeing with marijuana legalisation is associated with higher legislator support for drug legalisation, and presidential and legislator support for drug legalisation are associated with higher – but not more intense – citizen support for marijuana legalisation. Although better data is needed to further probe our findings, we contend that increases in elite and public support can move each other toward reform, albeit in small proportions. Based on these results we suggest a hypothesis for future research: although drug legalisation is a moral issue where voter predispositions are strong, it can also be conceptualised as a “hard issue” given its regulatory complexity, making opinions sensitive to debates and framing.