Assessing and forecasting droughts in eThekwini municipality: SPI, SPEI, and Time Series Insights for Sustainable Resource Management

The eThekwini Municipality, South Africa, has experienced increased drought frequency and intensity due to climate change and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study assesses and forecasts meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and ARIMA/SARIMA models, analyzing climate data from 1990 to 2022. Results reveal significant drought intensification, with extreme events in 2019 (central region, SPEI-6 = -3.42) and 2020 (northern region, SPI-3 = -8.15). SARIMA models outperformed ARIMA in forecasting accuracy, emphasizing the role of seasonality. Urbanization and land-use changes exacerbate central region droughts, while northern agricultural reliance highlights the need for water storage. Recommendations include drought-resistant crops, enhanced irrigation, and rainwater harvesting to bolster resilience. These findings inform localized drought management and contribute to global climate adaptation strategies.