Estimated future Municipal Solid Waste Generation, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Waste-to-Energy Potential of Wet Waste in Urban India OUTLOOK (2030)

Abstract The high rate of urbanization in India is a highlight of the 21st century development pathway of this country, and it poses a trilemma of economic growth, environmental sustainability, and people health. The paper gives a quantitative overlay of the municipal solid waste (MSW) scenario in urban India by 2030, its effect on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The demographic projections and the set metrics of waste generation are used in this analysis to estimate that by the year 2030, India would have around 547 million urban population, generating close to 110 million tonnes of MSW each year. The two waste management scenarios considered in the study are a Baseline scenario pathway that is continuous reliance on the unscientific landfills, and scenario 2 aligned with ‘SBM-U 2.0 (Swachh Bharat Mission Urban 2.0) Target' pathway which is coordinated with national goals for waste processing. The findings show that a transit into a successful SBM 2.0 model may reduce more than 41 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂​e) emission per year as opposed to the Baseline scenario, largely by eliminating landfill methane (CH₄​) emissions. Moreover, the paradigm change opens a considerable domestic energy source. The analysis estimates a national urban capacity to generate about 2.06 million tonnes of Bio-Compressed Natural Gas (Bio-CNG) out of wet biodegradable waste. Targeted policy recommendations at the end of the paper are aimed at introducing source segregation, developing effective market mechanisms on the reclaimed resource, a tiered technology strategy and ensuring capacity gaps in the Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) to rebuild India into the strategic waste to address the rising waste problem into a strategic advantage of climate action and energy independence in India.