Reflection of Intercontinental Freshwater Resources on Geopolitical Risks: Time Series Analysis

Water, an indispensable resource for life and not a complete substitute, is indispensable for energy production, industry, agriculture, and ecosystem sustainability. In particular, the limited and unequal distribution of freshwater reserves makes water a strategic power element on a global scale, making competition inevitable. Increasing water demand and decreasing water resources increase regional and global security risks, causing water to go beyond being a vital natural resource and become a determining factor in diplomacy, conflict, and the balance of power. This study aimed to examine the relationship between freshwater resources and geopolitical risk between 1961 and 2021 using the ARDL model. All models had long-run relationships between water resources and geopolitical risk. In the long-run, a 1% decrease in water resources increased geopolitical risk by 0.37% in Chile, 0.30% in Colombia, 0.46% in the Netherlands, 0.42% in Thailand, 0.44% in Ukraine, and 0.29% in Venezuela. The adjustment rates for the prior period imbalances were estimated to be 0.75% in Switzerland, 0.68% in Chile, 0.28% in Colombia, 0.45% in the Netherlands, 0.86% in Thailand, 0.14% in Ukraine, and 0.59% in Venezuela.