Predicting Rock Failure in Wet Environments Using Nonlinear Energy Signal Fusion for Sustainable Infrastructure Design

Moisture-induced instability in rock masses presents a significant threat to the safety and sustainability of underground infrastructure. This study proposes a nonlinear energy signal fusion framework to predict failure in moisture-affected limestone by integrating acoustic emission data with energy dissipation metrics. Uniaxial compression tests were carried out under controlled moisture conditions, with real-time monitoring of AE signals and strain energy evolution. The results reveal that increasing moisture content reduces the compressive strength and elastic modulus, prolongs the compaction phase, and induces a transition in failure mode from brittle shear to ductile tensile–shear behavior. An energy partitioning analysis shows a clear shift from storage-dominated to dissipation-dominated failure. A dissipation factor (η) is introduced to characterize the failure process, with critical thresholds ηmin and ηf identified. A nonlinear AE-energy coupling model incorporating water-sensitive parameters is proposed. Furthermore, an energy-based instability criterion integrating multiple indicators is established to quantify failure transitions. The proposed method offers a robust tool for intelligent monitoring and predictive stability assessment. By integrating data-driven indicators with environmental sensitivity, the study provides engineering insights that support adaptive support design, long-term resilience, and sustainable decision making in groundwater-rich rock environments.