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August 17, 2025Journal of Climate

A Statistical Reduced Complexity Climate Model for Probabilistic Analyses and Projections

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Authors

MBMikkel BennedsenEHEric HillebrandSKSiem Jan Koopman

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Overview

Statistical model predicts global mean surface temperature until 2100, indicating impacts of greenhouse gas emissions.

Key Points

  • The model projects global mean surface temperature based on different future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Utilizing a likelihood ratio test, we determine the best equation for atmospheric carbon dioxide's radiative forcing.
  • This statistical model employs maximum likelihood estimation via the extended Kalman filter for parameter estimation.
  • Combining physical insights with statistical modeling supports robust analyses of the climate system's behavior.

Cite This Study

Bennedsen et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68a36dec0a429f7973331c5bhttps://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-24-0734.1
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