Unraveling tsunami hazard potential along the central Makassar Strait thrust

This study investigates the tsunami hazard potential along the Central Makassar Strait Thrust through numerical modeling of an earthquake scenario. A finite fault model representing a moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 earthquake was developed using realistic fault geometry and a uniform slip distribution, based on empirical scaling relationships. The simulation employed the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) to analyze tsunami wave propagation and run-up across three different scenarios. Bathymetric data from BATNAS was utilized to ensure accurate representation of the seafloor topography. Results indicate that a uniform coseismic slip of 2.5 meters can generate vertical crustal deformation exceeding 6 meters. Maximum run-up values reach approximately 5 meters, particularly in Central Mamuju, where coastal topography and bay morphology significantly amplify wave energy. These findings underscore the region’s high tsunami risk due to short wave arrival times and localized amplification effects. This research highlights the importance of site-specific hazard assessments and the urgent need to improve early warning systems and community-based preparedness strategies in tsunami-prone coastal areas.