Factors of Pricing of Russian Polyethylene and Polypropylene on Chinese Market

The author studies the ratio of import prices for individual grades of Russian polyethylene and polypropylene in China to the average for all suppliers to this market in monthly dynamics. The regression analysis provided correct models of the dependence of this indicator on non-economic (the events of February 2022) and market factors, which showed the decisive contribution of geopolitical reasons to the increase in discounts on all Russian polyolefins from 10% to more than 20%. The negative impact of total import volumes on the pricing of Russian polymers in China, which is thus a “buyer’s market” for Russian companies, has been revealed. The described phenomenon is stable, spreads to other large markets for Russian polymers, creates risks for the long-term development of the industry and requires corrective measures of the country’s trade policy.