The Assessment of Ecosystem Stability and Analysis of Influencing Factors in Arid Desert Regions from 2000 to 2020: A Case Study of the Alxa Desert in China

Accurately assessing the spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors of ecosystem stability in arid desert regions (ADR) is crucial for ecological conservation and the achievement of high-quality regional development. However, existing assessment frameworks generally fail to adapt to the extremely fragile ecological conditions of ADR. Therefore, the Alxa Desert, a typical region, was selected as the research region, and an ecosystem stability assessment framework tailored to regional characteristics (perturbation–resilience–function) was constructed. Perturbation represents external pressure, resilience reflects the capacity for recovery and adaptation, and function serves as the supporting foundation. The three dimensions are dynamically coupled and jointly determine the stability status of the ecosystem in the Alxa Desert. Methodologically, this study innovatively introduces the Cloud Model–Analytic Hierarchy Process (CM-AHP) to calculate indicator weights, which more effectively addressed the widespread fuzziness and uncertainty inherent in ecosystem assessments compared to traditional methods. In addition, spatial autocorrelation methods was applied to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of ecosystem stability from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, the optimal parameters geographical detector model (OPGDM) was applied to analyze the effects of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ecosystem stability in Alxa Desert. In addition, the Markov–FLUS model was employed to simulate the future trends of ecosystem stability over the next two decades. The results indicate that ecosystem stability in Alxa Desert from 2000 to 2020 was primarily characterized by vulnerable and moderate levels, with the area classified as extremely vulnerable decreasing significantly by 10% relative to its extent in 2000. Spatially, higher stability was observed in oasis regions and southeastern mountainous regions, while lower stability was concentrated in the desert hinterlands. Overall, ecosystem stability shifted from vulnerable toward moderate levels, reflecting a trend of gradual improvement. From 2000 to 2020, the Moran’s I varied between 0.78 and 0.81, showing strong spatial clustering. Surfce Soil moisture content (SSMC), Soil organic carbon (SOC), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were the primary factors influencing the spatial differentiation of ecosystem stability in Alxa Desert. The interaction between these factors further enhanced their explanatory power. Future forecasting results indicate that ecosystem stability will further improve by 2030 and 2040, particularly in the northern and southern areas of Alxa Left Banner and Alxa Right Banner. The findings can offer a theoretical foundation for future ecological conservation and environmental management in ADR.