Analysis of Climate Change and Variability on Irish Potato Production among Small-Scale Farmers Using GIS in Narok County, Kenya

This study explored the analysis of climate change and variability on Irish potato production among small-scale farmers using GIS in Narok County, Kenya. Data collection methods in this study involved: small-scale farmers’ respondents' descriptive survey, in-depth key informant interviews, and GIS website downloads. A sample of 393 small-scale farmers was randomly sampled to gather data on Irish potato production factors. Key informants from the Narok South Agriculture Department provided Irish potato production data from 1991 to 2020, and temperature and rainfall data were downloaded from Google NASA Power. Data from the field was screened and evaluated using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 22.0 program to give frequencies and percentages. Chi-square was calculated and inference made at a confidence level of α=0.05. The results indicated that, Pearson correlation coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall and temperature against Irish potato production for period in 1991 to 2020 revealed high positive correlations for rainfall (r = 0.826) and high negative correlations for maximum temperature (r = -0.741) and very low negative correlations for minimum temperature (r = -0.2152). The study further outlined that, majority of the respondents, comprising about 90.2 % of the households in the study area, observed highly dry conditions, and only 48.9 % of the household respondents were able to observe low temperature occurrence in their area. From these findings, climate change and variability have an effect on Irish potato production and therefore affect food availability in Narok County. The study recommends that the agricultural extension agents, together with the Kenya Meteorological Department, should endeavour to inform and train farmers on the use of modern geographical information technologies. Moreover, farmers should be encouraged to intercrop Irish potatoes with other food crops to cushion them against climate change and variability. This will not only increase food security within their households but will also equip them with up-to-date information and therefore help them make informed decisions on Irish potato production. This will improve food security amid climate change and variability in Narok County.