Spatiotemporal Mapping of Seasonal Drought Dynamics in Kenya Using Remote Sensing and Combined Drought Indices for Climate Risk Planning

Abstract Drought is a pervasive and intensifying climate hazard with profound implications for food security, water availability, and socio-economic stability, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In Kenya, where over 80% of the landmass comprises arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), recurrent droughts have become a critical threat to agricultural productivity and climate resilience. This study presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal drought dynamics in Kenya for June-July-August-September (JJAS) from 2000 to 2024, leveraging remote sensing-based drought indices and geospatial analytics for climate risk planning. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Soil Moisture Anomaly (SMA), and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) anomaly, a Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) was developed to assess drought severity, persistence, and impact across Kenya’s four climatological seasons. Data were processed using Google Earth Engine and visualized through GIS platforms to produce high-resolution drought maps disaggregated by county and land use class. Results reveal a marked intensification of drought conditions, with Alert and Warning classifications expanding significantly in ASALs, particularly in Garissa, Kitui, Marsabit, and Tana River. Drought persistence analysis highlights chronic exposure in northeastern and southeastern counties, while cropland and rangeland vulnerability increased by over 100% and 5,600%, respectively. Population exposure to drought also rose sharply, underscoring the socio-economic implications of climate-induced water stress. The study provides an operational framework for integrating remote sensing into early warning systems and policy planning, aligning with global climate adaptation goals and national resilience strategies. The findings advocate for proactive, data-driven drought management and localized adaptation interventions in Kenya’s most vulnerable regions.