Climate change-driven shifts of global and regional food security risks throughout the 21st century

Abstract Global food security faces rising short-term risks as climate change reshapes crop variability. Combining multi-crop model simulations with agricultural market modeling, we find that under the high-emission scenario RCP 8.5, climate change more than doubles the likelihood of extreme global price peaks for maize (+128%) and rice (+146%) and increases it nearly sixfold for soybean (+496%) by the end of the century. In contrast, the likelihood declines for wheat. Resulting consumption risks vary widely across regions. We identify high production risk, import dependency, a small supplier base, and major exporter status as key drivers. In high-risk regions where several factors overlap, the potential losses are large; for example, in the USA, per-capita maize consumption at risk could equal more than 214 days of recommended caloric intake. Food security strategies must address volatility and be tailored to trade positions, recognizing the role of trade structure in shaping risk.