To Stay or to Migrate: Driving Factors and Formation Mechanisms of Rural Households’ Decisions Regarding Rural–Urban Student Migration in China

Rural–urban student migration during the compulsory education stage is a transitional phenomenon in China’s socio-economic development and a crucial issue for achieving the goal of urban–rural integration. This paper, grounded in theoretical analysis, constructs a “willingness-capacity-behavior” framework. Based on field survey data from 916 rural households and in-depth interview materials from County D, Province X, China, this study employs a bivariate Probit model and qualitative analysis methods to explore the driving factors and formation mechanisms of rural households’ rural–urban student migration decisions. The results indicate that rural households’ decisions regarding rural–urban student migration are jointly influenced by migration willingness and migration capacity. Only households with both migration willingness and migration capacity can actualize migration behavior. Migration willingness is derived from a cost–benefit analysis and involves joint decision-making by both parents, significantly influenced by parental personal characteristics and the student’s individual characteristics. The intermediate barriers to rural–urban student migration require certain migration capacities to be overcome, which are mainly influenced by family resource endowment and parental personal characteristics.