Changing oceans and maritime transport: research on new routes and geographical convenience in the Arctic region

The Arctic Ocean is a sensitive region where the effects of climate change can be clearly observed. In particular, the decrease in the concentration of sea ice has started to cause significant changes in both ecosystems and maritime activities in this region. Among them is the opening of new shipping routes as an effect of global climate change. This empirical study aims to determine which geographies would be ideal for use in Arctic shipping by evaluating the functionality of these routes with detailed scenarios. Further, it re‐evaluates route distances and creates a holistic shipping cost model for select East Asian and Western European ports. The model utilises speed loss functions reflecting ice and weather conditions in the Arctic region. Based on results obtained for various scenarios considered, the study concludes that in most cases, the Northern Sea Route is more convenient than the Suez Canal Route, and in every future situation from the year 2100, the use of the Transpolar Sea Route is expected to be much more economical with respect to the nautical mileage.