National Trends and Global Context of Acute Pancreatitis Hospitalization in China (2004–2022): Policy Implications from Nationwide Real-World and GBD Data

Abstract Background: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a growing global health and economic burden. In China, the hospitalization rate for AP has increased rapidly in the past two decades; however, nationwide, real-world analyses remain limited and may diverge from global modeled estimates. Methods: We analyzed national hospital discharge data (2004–2022) to assess AP trends by age, sex, and region, compared with the Global Burden of Disease(GBD) projections. Joinpoint regression and forecasting models were used to identify inflection points and predict future burden. Results: Hospitalizations increased from 19,620 (2004) to 489,170 (2022), with the largest increase in adults aged ≥60 years. Although in-hospital mortality declined from 1.2% to 0.26%, county-level hospitals surpassed urban discharge after 2015. The divergence between the observed and GBD-modeled mortality peaked at 143% during 2017–2019. The projections indicate a further increase by 2026. Conclusions: The real-world burden of AP in China exceeds the global estimates, with significant age and regional disparities. These findings highlight the limitations of model-based metrics and call for integrated disease surveillance and targeted policy actions relevant to other aging and populous nations.