Comparative analysis of trends in the burden of pancreatitis in China and worldwide, 1990–2021

Background Amidst global demographic aging patterns, understanding divergent trajectories of pancreatitis burden is crucial for health equity. This study compares China’s pancreatitis burden (1990–2021) against global aggregates, focusing on age-sex stratification within aging populations. Methods Leveraging Global Burden of Disease 2021 datasets, we analyzed age-standardized rates (ASR) for incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), mortality (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs/ASDR). Joinpoint regression quantified temporal trends via average annual percentage changes (AAPC). Statistical significance was determined through 95% confidence intervals (CIs). GBD standardization protocols ensured comparability of sex-age stratified analyses. Results From 1990 to 2021, China witnessed significant declines in pancreatitis burden. The age-standardized rates per 100,000 population fell as follows: incidence (ASIR) from 35.35 to 23.95; prevalence (ASPR) from 35.33 to 24.15; mortality (ASMR) from 0.98 to 0.64; and DALYs (ASDR) from 29.77 to 18.27. The corresponding average annual percentage changes (AAPCs: ASIR −1.34%; ASPR −1.25%; ASMR −1.40%; ASDR −1.57%) were substantially greater than the global averages (ASIR −0.44%; ASPR −0.99%; ASMR −0.47%; ASDR −0.53%). Age and sex disparities were clear, with males having higher rates below age 65, and females bearing a greater burden thereafter. Conclusion This study highlights a marked decline in China’s pancreatitis burden, linked to healthcare advances, despite persistent disparities in older populations. Moving beyond isolated descriptions of trends, our study introduces a direct comparative analysis that quantifies China’s steeper decline in pancreatitis burden relative to the global average. This provides a nuanced, quantitative benchmark for evaluating the effectiveness of national health policies. These findings call for equitable policies and future work on region-specific risks and scalable interventions.