Tree-ring based drought reconstruction for the Southern Urals, Russia, and its teleconnection to Northeast China climate variability

Abstract In recent decades, the frequent occurrence of extreme climate events, which link high-and mid-latitude regions, has been closely associated with the amplification of Arctic warming. This increase not only signifies that climate change is affecting the atmospheric circulation system but also points to the growing influence of anthropogenic forcing. Using Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) tree rings from the Southern Urals, we reconstructed the average June-July scPDSI series from 1778 to 2022 for this region. We found that tree rings capture the direct role of the Ural Blocking (UB) pattern in modulating hydroclimatic variability during summer (June-July) in the Southern Urals and precipitation in Northeast China. Since the Industrial Revolution, the PDO has been the primary internal driver of climatic variability in this region, but anthropogenic forcing of the recent drying trend has become increasingly evident. The projected increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme drought events in the future indicates a potentially profound change in terrestrial ecosystems across the Southern Urals and other large parts of the mid-to-high latitudes driven by human activities.