Tree-Ring Cell-Based Reconstruction of Runoff Wet–Dry Variability over the Past Nearly 300 Years Reveals Different Agricultural Impacts on the Northern and Southern Foothills of the Greater Khingan Mountains

Background: Extreme drought and flood events continuously threaten the stability of forest and crop production. Long-term hydrological records derived from tree-ring anatomical proxies provide critical evidence for revealing historical drought hazard differentiation. Methods: Cell wall thickness chronologies of Betula platyphylla (northern forest) and Picea koraiensis (southern agro-pastoral zone) were developed to reconstruct nearly 300-year annual runoff sequences. Pearson correlation, quadratic regression, wavelet transform and superposed epoch analysis (SEA) were applied to quantify hydrological evolution, periodic signals, large-scale climate forcing and statistical coupling between dry/wet extremes and historical yield reduction records. Results: The northern watershed showed stronger interannual runoff oscillation. Both regions entered persistent low-flow phases post-1950. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) acted as the dominant driver, while solar radiation exerted weak secondary regulation. Severe drought events corresponded closely to historical forest and grain yield losses, with far higher agricultural vulnerability in the southern agro-pastoral ecotone. Conclusions: This study reconstructed the long-term historical runoff of the Greater Khingan Range from the thickness of the cell wall, analyzed the different impacts of PDO on it, and clarified the differentiated effects of drought and flood on agricultural and forestry production losses and the interrelated impact of land use on hydrology and the value of agricultural output.