Research on the Impact of the National Agricultural Green Development Pilot Zone Policy on Agricultural Carbon Emission Efficiency—A Quasi-Natural Experiment in 41 Cities in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Improving the agricultural carbon emission efficiency (ACEE) has important practical significance for the green development of agriculture (GDA). However, few studies have analyzed the impact of the national agricultural green development pilot zone (NAGDPZ) policy on the ACEE. This study is based on panel data from 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) from 2013 to 2023. Through the creation of the NAGDPZ, a quasi-natural experiment was designed. By using the difference-in-differences (DID) method, a systematic analysis was conducted on the impact of the NAGDPZ policy on the ACEE. The research findings are as follows: (1) The overall ACEE in the YRD region has improved, and the spatial distribution is higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest. (2) The NAGDPZ policy can significantly enhance the ACEE, with a coefficient of 0.049. This positive effect is still observed even after many robustness tests. (3) The NAGDPZ policy has expanded the agricultural operation scale (AOS) and enhanced agricultural labor productivity (ALP), improving the ACEE. Therefore, it is suggested that the pilot scope of the NAGDPZ should be expanded.