Method of Analysis and Forecasting Economic Crises

The purpose of this work is to develop a new method for analyzing economic crises that allows for timely detection of signs of emerging threats. Definitions of concepts are given, the main parameters of a crisis and parameters of crisis diffusion are determined. A model of crisis propagation as a sum of two logistic curves is presented. A multi-level system of indicators for monitoring economic crises with an information update period of one month has been developed. An algorithm for monitoring an economic crisis is proposed that includes six stages: a preliminary stage associated with the analysis of possible root causes and triggers of a crisis; monitoring of leading indicators; multi-level operational monitoring of economic crises; processing, generalization and analysis of information; forecasting; development of recommendations for the timely detection of crises. The new method for analyzing crises has been verified using the example of the development of the economic crisis of 2008-2009.