Seismic Disaster Risk Assessment of Oil and Gas Pipelines

Oil and gas pipelines represent critical infrastructure for energy transportation and are essential for ensurin g energy security. The seismic disaster risk assessment of these pipelines is of paramount importance for safeguarding energy supplies. Traditional assessment methodologies primarily focus on the structural integrity of the pipeline body, often neglecting the impact of auxiliary structures and site-specific disaster effects. This study proposes an enhanced risk assessment methodology to address these gaps. This research systematically compiles seismic damage case studies of pipelines from major seismic zones in China. By considering the interactions between auxiliary structure types, site conditions, and forms of disasters, 15 typical operating conditions are identified, and a seismic damage case database is constructed. We develop a failure probability model that integrates geotechnical parameters, structural responses, and ground motion characteristics to assess the impact of liquefaction, site amplification, fault activity, and collapse/landslide phenomena. Utilizing Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy AHP) algorithms, this model quantifies the influence weights and coefficients of these disasters on pipeline auxiliary structures, forming a vulnerability matrix centered around Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). Additionally, a dual-vulnerability assessment framework is established, and a failure probability formula accounting for the superposition effects of multiple disasters is proposed. This study marks a significant advancement, transitioning from traditional single-pipeline evaluations to “structure-disaster-site” coupling analysis, and provides a scientific basis for pipeline seismic design, operation, and maintenance under specific environmental conditions. This work contributes to the development of quantitative and refined seismic risk assessments for oil and gas pipelines.