Reliability Assessment of Hybrid Cable Laying Configurations in Urban Dense Cable Channels Based on Modified Weibull Distribution

With the acceleration of urbanization and the increasing demand for aesthetics, cable laying is progressively transitioning into urban dense cable channels. The internal environment of these channels is complex, and arbitrary cable laying poses significant threats to normal cable operation. Therefore, this paper proposes a reliability assessment method for hybrid cable laying configurations in urban dense cable channels based on a modified Weibull distribution. Firstly, a Weibull proportional hazards model is constructed by incorporating channel operational risk factors as covariates. Then, Bayesian inference is employed to update the Weibull parameters by integrating expert experience with cable channel O&M data. Subsequently, we select the parameter distribution and reliability evaluation indicators suitable for the operating environment of the cable channel and analyze the influence of the overcrowding rate of cable laying, the operating temperature of the cable, and the distance between cables in the channel on the reliability of the cable channel. Finally, a case study is conducted on a cable channel in a region of the China Southern Power Grid utilizing its actual O&M data to perform a reliability assessment. The effectiveness of the proposed modified Weibull distribution assessment method is validated through model comparison. Furthermore, this study provides differentiated maintenance strategies for specific cables within the channel and proposes a set of highly applicable O&M guidelines.