Prediction and Optimization of the Restoration Quality of University Outdoor Spaces: A Data-Driven Study Using Image Semantic Segmentation and Explainable Machine Learning

Evaluating the restoration quality of university outdoor spaces is often constrained by subjective surveys and manual assessment, limiting scalability and objectivity. This study addresses this gap by applying explainable machine learning to predict restorative quality from campus imagery, enabling large-scale, data-driven evaluation and capturing complex nonlinear relationships that traditional methods may overlook. Using Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University as a case study, this study extracted road network data, generated 297 coordinates at 50-m intervals, and collected 1197 images. Surveys were conducted to obtain restorative quality scores. The Mask2Former model was used to extract landscape features, and decision tree algorithms (RF, XGBoost, GBR) were selected based on MAE, MSE, and EVS metrics. The combination of optimal algorithms and SHAP was employed to predict restoration quality and identify key features. This research also used a multivariate linear regression model to identify features with significant statistical impact but lower features importance ranking. Finally, the study also analyzed heterogeneity in scores for three restoration indicators and five campus zones using k-means clustering. Empirical results show that natural elements like vegetation and water positively affect psychological perception, while structural components like walls and fences have negative or nonlinear effects. On this basis, this study proposes spatial optimization strategies for different campus areas, offering a foundation for creating high-quality outdoor environments with restorative and social functions.