The shifts in U.S. climate policy from the perspective of historical institutionalism: from George W. Bush to Joe Biden

Since the 1980s, countries around the world have gradually recognized the urgency of climate change and begun implementing various measures in response. As a key participant in global climate governance, the United States has nonetheless exhibited a lack of policy continuity. In the 1990s, the Clinton administration actively engaged in global climate governance, yet his successor, George W. Bush, immediately reversed this stance upon taking office by announcing the U.S. withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol. From the Bush administration to the Biden administration, the United States has continued to oscillate between active climate policies and passive climate policies. This paper draws on the theoretical framework of historical institutionalism to analyze this phenomenon. Over the past two decades, the trajectory of U.S. climate policy reveals an alternating interplay between two institutional logics: critical junctures, which represent moments of significant change, and path dependence, which reflects continuity shaped by past decisions. The partisan contestation between Democratic and Republican leaders over climate issues both reflects institutional ruptures caused by critical junctures and reveals the underlying path dependence beneath these ruptures.