Impacts of tropical sea surface temperature variability on oil palm yield in Malaysia

As the world’s second-largest palm oil producer, Malaysia plays a vital role in global supply chains. Understanding the impact of tropical Indian and Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability on palm yield is crucial for ensuring stable production and pricing. This study statistically assesses the influence of three tropical ocean variability indices on Malaysia’s national palm yield, after removing the influence of the Niño 3.4 index. Results indicate that the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) indices during April–May–June (AMJ) are negatively correlated with yields from September to December, while a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) anomaly in JJA is linked to 1.45% yield anomalies increase, particularly in July and August. Additionally, higher temperatures during the flowering stage before harvest usually reduce yield, while changes in precipitation patterns have different effects on yields in East Malaysia and Peninsular Malaysia. Our results also provide quantitative evidence on how tropical ocean variability impacts palm oil production in Malaysia, especially in the critical September–December period. This research provides valuable information for improving yield predictions and managing climate-related risks, contributing to the stability of both Malaysia’s palm oil production and the global palm oil market.