Predicting Operating Speeds of Passenger Cars on Single-Carriageway Road Tangents

This research addresses the challenge of predicting operating vehicles’ speeds (V85) on single-carriageway road tangents. While most previous models rely on preceding segment speeds or focus on curves, this research develops an independent prediction model specifically for road tangents, based on empirical data collected in Croatia. A total of 46 locations across 23 road cross-sections were analysed, with operating speeds measured using field radar surveys and fixed traffic counters. Following a comprehensive correlation and multicollinearity analysis of 24 geometric, environmental, and traffic-related variables, a multiple linear regression model was developed using a training dataset (36 locations) and validated on a separate test set (10 locations). The model includes nine statistically significant predictors: shoulder type (gravel), edge line quality (excellent and satisfactory), pavement quality (excellent), average summer daily traffic (ASDT), crash ratio, edge lane presence, overtaking allowed, and heavy goods vehicle share. The model demonstrated strong predictive performance (R2 = 0.89, RMSE = 5.24), with validation results showing an average absolute deviation of 2.43%. These results confirm the model’s reliability and practical applicability in road design and traffic safety assessments.