Identifying Forest Drought Sensitivity Drivers in China Under Lagged and Accumulative Effects via XGBoost-SHAP

Drought, a complex and frequent natural hazard in the context of global change, poses a major threat to key forest ecosystems in the carbon cycle. However, current research lacks a systematic and quantitative analysis of the multi-factor drivers of drought sensitivity based on lagged and accumulative effects. To address this gap, a drought sensitivity model was established by integrating both lagged and accumulative effects derived from long-term remote sensing datasets. To leverage both predictive power and interpretability, the XGBoost–SHAP framework was employed to model nonlinear associations and identify the threshold effects of driving factors. In addition, the Geodetector model was applied to examine spatially explicit interactions among multiple drivers, thereby uncovering the coupling effects that jointly shape forest drought sensitivity across China. The results reveal the following: (1) Drought had lagged and accumulative effects on 99.52% and 95.55% of forest GPP, with evergreen broadleaf forest showing the strongest effects and deciduous needleleaf forest the weakest. (2) Evergreen needleleaf forests have the highest proportion of extremely high drought sensitivity (16.94%), while deciduous needleleaf forests have the least (1.02%), and the drought sensitivity index declined in 67.12% of forests over decades. (3) Temperature and precipitation are the primary drivers of drought sensitivity, with clear threshold effects. Evergreen forests are mainly driven by climatic factors, while forest age is a key driver in deciduous needleleaf forests. (4) Interactive effects among multiple factors significantly amplify spatial variations in drought sensitivity, with water–heat coupling dominating in evergreen forests and structure–climate interactions prevailing in deciduous forests.