Evolution of the Hydrological Regime at the Outlet of West Dongting Lake Since 1955

To quantitatively evaluate the hydrological regime dynamics in West Dongting Lake over the past seven decades, this study utilizes daily average water level series (1955–2024) from key control stations (Nanzui and Xiaohezui) to analyze variations in water level and discharge through change-point detection methods, adopting the water level difference between Xiaohezui and Nanzui as a pivotal indicator of hydrological changes; the IHA–RVA framework is then applied to comprehensively assess the degree of alteration in hydrological indicators before and after identifying change points, demonstrating the following: (1) declining trends in water level/discharge at both stations—primarily attributable to reduced inflows from the Songzi and Hudu Rivers—underwent abrupt shifts in 1983 and 2003, while the water level difference displayed an increasing trend with a change point in 1991; (2) the overall degree of hydrologic alteration (DHA) was moderate, with enhanced variability during T2 (2003–2024) relative to T1 (1983–2003), notably for discharge at Nanzui and water level at Xiaohezui; (3) reduced discharge in the Songzi and Hudu Rivers primarily drives the decreased outflow from West Dongting Lake. In the Li and Yuan basins during period T1, anthropogenic factors dominated runoff alterations. During T2, anthropogenic contributions accounted for 76.27% and 48.67% of runoff changes, respectively, resulting in reduced runoff volumes under equivalent precipitation inputs. (4) Under fixed water level differences, a significant positive correlation exists between discharges at Xiaohezui and Nanzui stations. Greater discharge flows downstream through the flow channel adjacent to NZ at West Dongting Lake’s outlet. Collectively, these findings establish a technical foundation for assessing the impact of hydrological regimes and aquatic ecological security in Dongting Lake, thereby advancing sustainable water resource utilization across the basin.