An Interpretable Deep Learning Framework for River Water Quality Prediction—A Case Study of the Poyang Lake Basin

Accurate prediction of water quality involves early identification of future pollutant concentrations and water quality indicators, which is an important prerequisite for optimizing water environment management. Although deep learning algorithms have demonstrated considerable potential in predicting water quality parameters, their broader adoption remains hindered by limited interpretability. This study proposes an interpretable deep learning framework integrating an artificial neural network (ANN) model with Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis to predict spatiotemporal variations in water quality and identify key influencing factors. A case study was conducted in the Poyang Lake Basin, utilizing multi-dimensional datasets encompassing topographic, meteorological, socioeconomic, and land use variables. Results indicated that the ANN model exhibited strong predictive performance for dissolved oxygen (DO), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), permanganate index (CODMn), ammonia nitrogen (NH3N), and turbidity (Turb), achieving R2 values ranging from 0.47 to 0.77. Incorporating land use and socioeconomic factors enhanced prediction accuracy by 37.8–246.7% compared to models using only meteorological data. SHAP analysis revealed differences in the dominant factors influencing various water quality parameters. Specifically, cropland area, forest cover, air temperature, and slope in each sub-basin were identified as the most important variables affecting water quality parameters in the case area. These findings provide scientific support for the intelligent management of the regional water environment.