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Tobacco tax policy in South Africa: what went wrong and lessons for other countries

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Illicit trade now constitutes over half of all cigarette sales in South Africa, undermining taxation efforts.
Excise tax increases from 1994 to 2009 significantly reduced smoking rates and increased revenue.
The analysis of South African tax policy underscores the importance of strong enforcement and industry oversight.
Complacency in policy enforcement allows the tobacco industry to regain power and exploit gaps for profit.

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Analysis reveals declining tobacco control and revenue gains in South Africa due to illicit trade and policy failures.

Walbeek et al. (2025) studied this question.

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