Analysis reveals changing wave patterns in the arctic with significant shifts expected in future climate scenarios, highlighting the role of the marginal ice zone.
This study examines the variation and trends in wave parameters across the Arctic, including the marginal ice zone (MIZ), by comparing historical data (1980–2009) with projections for a future climate scenario (2070–2099) as outlined by the IPCC. Utilizing the WAVEWATCH III (WW3) numerical wave prediction model, we simulate the wave climate for these periods, incorporating advanced parameterizations to account for wave-ice interactions within the MIZ. Our analysis focuses on the extreme values of significant wave heights (Hs), mean wave periods (T0), and dominant mean wave direction (MWD), calculated for both winter and summer seasons. To assess changes in wave climate under future climate scenarios, we first use a similarity matrix, applying the kappa variable and cell-by-cell numerical comparison methods to assess model congruence across different conditions. We also follow a standard approach, by assessing the extreme wave conditions for 20 and 100-year return periods using standard stochastic models, including Gumbel, exponential, and Weibull distributions.
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Goharnejad et al. (2025) studied this question.
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