Bridging Theory and Practice: Applying Software Evolution Laws to ICT in Higher Education

Abstract This research examines the knowledge, perceived effects, and alignment of fundamental software evolution principles; Moore’s Law, Brooks’ Law, and Conway’s Law in influencing information and communication technology (ICT) efficiency at the Federal College of Agriculture, Ibadan (FCAI), Nigeria. A study involving 63 participants (academic personnel, administrators, ICT officers, project managers, and developers) was completed. Findings indicated limited awareness, as just 41.3% acknowledged Moore's Law, 44.4% recognized Brooks' Law, and 49.2% were aware of Conway's Law. ICT effectiveness indicators were inconsistent: access to information received the highest rating (mean = 3.6/5), followed by data security (3.2) and operational efficiency (3.1), while project sustainability also scored 3.1 and user satisfaction was the lowest at 2.8. Statistical examination revealed no significant disparities in awareness among roles (χ² p > 0.05) and no notable differences in ICT perceptions based on role (ANOVA p > 0.05). Regression analysis validated that adherence to software regulations notably forecasted operational efficiency and user satisfaction, whereas relationships with information access and sustainability were feeble. Four supervised learning models were trained to predict the effectiveness of ICT (high vs. low) to enhance survey analysis. Logistic Regression (LR) attained the highest outcomes (Accuracy = 0.95, Precision = 1.00, Recall = 0.83, F1 = 0.91, ROC-AUC = 0.84). Support Vector Machine (SVM) achieved Accuracy = 0.88, F1 = 0.81, and ROC-AUC = 0.82. Random Forest (RF) recorded an Accuracy of 0.88, exhibiting flawless Precision (1.00) but reduced Recall (0.61), resulting in an F1 score of 0.76 and a ROC-AUC of 0.85. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) achieved the lowest performance (Accuracy = 0.80, F1 = 0.65, ROC-AUC = 0.82). Analysis of feature importance revealed that adherence to software laws (score = 0.31) and understanding of Conway’s Law (0.22) were the most significant predictors, with stakeholder role (0.18) and years of experience (0.15) following closely. The findings highlight a systemic gap between theoretical awareness and practical ICT deployment in Nigerian higher education. Strengthening institutional ICT strategies through the integration of software principles, capacity-building initiatives, and the use of predictive models is recommended to enhance effectiveness and sustainability.